Cold air will invade the region in a big way as we finish this weekend and move into next week. However, overall, the state stays well below normal on precipitation. The cold air will trigger a threat of moisture later Monday and Tuesday over the northern third of the state, but moisture totals stay very light.
The weekend finishes with partly to mostly sunny skies for Saturday and Sunday. Temps are cool, but not cold. A reinforcing shot of cold air comes in overnight Sunday night and parks over the state through Wednesday. This period will give frost and freeze conditions each overnight and a true end to the growing season for summer crops in areas where that has not happened yet.
However, a hard freeze that would send winter crops into dormancy is not likely. The cold air will also bring more clouds around, particularly in the northern part of the state. The clouds can trigger some scattered to light precipitation overnight Monday night through Tuesday. Totals will be no more than a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but we likely see slow to non-existent drying in northern locations those days. We should be precipitation free on Wednesday. The rest of the state will see very slow drying in the colder days, but we expect harvest will grind forward, especially on corn.
A major patter shift comes on the backside of this cold airmass Thursday through the weekend and early next week. Temps move sharply to well above normal levels. Evaporation ramps up and we will see excellent drying and a wide open harvest window. Temps will be likely 10-20 degrees above normal for Friday through next weekend and Monday the 24th.
Clouds increase the 25th and scattered showers show up overnight the 25th into early the 26th. Rain totals look to be .1”-.5” with coverage at 60%, skewed central and southern IN. Then for Thursday the 27th we can see another system that brings .1”-.7” with coverage at 90%. That system draws down colder air to finish the month of October. But we will shift back dry for the week to start November.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Near normal temps and near normal precipitation for the first half of November. We have a drier bias in week 3 vs. week 4, but still look to be mostly trouble free for those weeks as they relate to harvest.
Week 3 Precipitation v. Normal:
Week 3 Temps v. Normal:
Week 4 Precipitation v. Normal:
Week 4 Temps v. Normal: