An absolutely beautiful week last week for drying over the state with hot temps and full sunshine. Unfortunately, we can’t promise the same this week. We think we will have some opportunities for field work, but we also have potential for a more active precipitation pattern.
It all starts this weekend, with rain showers moving into the state Saturday afternoon. Generally, activity will be pretty light with totals of a few hundredths to 0.5” with coverage at 60%. We take a bit of a break for the daytime hours Sunday but renew our chances for moisture again overnight Sunday night through Monday morning.
Rain totals from that second wave will be 0.1”-0.75”. There will be thunderstorms in there that promote the upper end of the range, but they look to have a fairly compact impact zone. Right now, we are targeting the thunderstorm activity to central Indiana, likely between US 24 and I-70. However, it won’t take much to slide that activity outside of that zone. The takeaway is that outside of the thunderstorms, the moisture overnight Sunday is pretty tame, and if we miss it or are at the low end of the range, it’s not super problematic.
Sun returns Monday, and we stay sunny and dry Tuesday as well. Moisture comes back for Wednesday, but may be limited to southern IN. From I-70 south we are looking for 0.1”-0.7” with coverage at 80%. However, northern IN may get by with little or no precipitation. Thursday will have some lingering scattered showers with potential to fall anywhere in the state, but only 30% coverage. Where we see rain Thursday, we can look for 0.3” or less. Friday is dry.
This coming weekend will be interesting. A strong frontal boundary is setting up to our west and north, running from the Great Lakes back into central MO. However, the front looks to have trouble advancing east and may try and fall apart. IF it comes east, we can look for rain as soon as Saturday and continuing into Sunday. If it falls apart, more of a hit and miss shower/thunderstorm pattern may ensue. Worst case scenario has us at half to 1.5” of rain for the weekend and that knocks us out of the fields for a bit. Least case scenario has us seeing 30-40% coverage of a few hundredths up to 0.4”, skewed north and west in the state. Models can’t get a good handle on the pattern at this time and are flip-flopping a bit. We expect at least half an inch late Saturday into Sunday as the front holds together j just enough, and we end up with 80% coverage. But time will tell.
The map above shows combined 10 day rain totals. A large part of the southern Indiana totals come at midweek and in the potential for this coming weekend.
We dry down on Sunday afternoon and should be dry to finish the 10 day window on Monday the 23rd.
The extended 11-16 day period starts active with a storm complex for the 24th that could bring heavy rain. But then we go dry from the 25th through the 30th, with above normal temps and good drying again.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Precipitation for week 3 will be normal to slightly above normal, and then week 4 will be near normal. Temps will be near normal for week 3, and normal to slightly below normal for week 4.
Week 3 Precipitation (Green = above normal, Brown = below)
Week 3 Temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)
Week 4 Precipitation (Green = above normal, Brown = below)
Week 4 Temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)