Rabobank says the main challenges for the pork industry in 2022 remain COVID-19 and African swine fever.
COVID-19 will continue to challenge pork supply chains and consumers in various ways, affecting both production and demand.
The slowing global economy will have more visible consequences in 2022, and price inflation of consumer goods will put extra pressure on consumers. However, pork prices increased marginally in the late part of 2021 but remain below 2021 peak levels.
Diseases, particularly African swine fever, are another major uncertainty for pork production, with the impact varying by region. In Europe, ASF has spread to new countries in recent months, challenging 2022 European production. In Asia, ASF continues to spread in China, but the impact is much lower than in 2020.
Input costs continue to rise and will stay inflated in 2022, specifically feed and transportation costs.
Global pork imports and exports will likely decline from 2021 levels, mainly driven by reductions in China’s import demand as local production recovers.