USDA will release its monthly world supply and demand forecasts on Wednesday, including new assessments of export and price prospects. This month’s report will also include analysis of what’s happening in Ukraine.
USDA’s Outlook Board chairman Mark Jekanowski says they have a good idea of how much grain there is stored in Ukraine, “but that grain is not flowing. Ports are closed. So, our analysts, right now, they’re putting together their best analyses to try to come up with some reasonable expectations for what that means for the supplies for the rest of the marketing year.”
One of the key unknowns is, “Whether that grain that’s currently in Ukraine is going to make it into the world markets and, if so, when?”
And how that will affect U.S. and world markets. If the large corn and wheat supplies in Ukraine cannot move out of the country for the foreseeable future, Jekanowski says it’s reasonable to assume that, “their customers have to turn elsewhere, and the U.S. is likely to pick up a lot of that business, at least in the short term, the EU as well. So, basically, all of the other major suppliers are going to have to step up and fill that gap.”
Those customers will be coming to the U.S. even with prices very high. This past week, wheat prices were the highest in 14 years, while corn was the highest in 8 or 9 years. With those prices moving higher, Jekanowski says for U.S. farmers, “It’s likely to affect planting decisions.”
It could impact both how many acres farmers will plant and what crops will go in the ground. USDA is currently surveying thousands of producers on their planting plans. USDA will release that prospective plantings report on March 31.
Source: USDA Radio Newsline